I think once the full go-ahead for the industry happens, there will be an overload of tours trying to go out right away. The downside to that is that there are finite places to play and finite amounts of lighting, sound, trucks, busses, and personnel to do all of those tours.
There are organizations that have been meeting for months (in the US the Touring Professionals Alliance is one of them that was formed just for this reason) and trying to figure out a unified front of sorts for how to proceed safely and sanely once it becomes possible. Any small outbreak of covid on a tour would grind that tour to a halt, and there's too much at stake to risk that. Once a tour starts rolling it needs to keep rolling efficiently or a lot of money starts to get lost. So vaccines are going to be key, but there doesn't seem to be any way to require it at the moment. Even harder to control is the interaction with local crew/building staff. I think we'll be seeing states and cities that won't get on board with safety protocols start getting skipped over by tours that don't feel safe going there.

That said, I don't know when Tool will resume touring. It'll happen at some point, but I don't think they'll be among the very first to go out. Hopefully not much longer, though.